For The First Time Donald Trump is Gaining Ground in a State No Republican Has Won in 40 Years

By: Georgia McKoy | Last updated: Oct 31, 2023

Recent political observations have revealed an intriguing trend: former president Donald Trump is seeing an uptick in his political support within New York, a state that has historically been a Democratic stronghold. 

The gap that once separated Trump from current president Joe Biden appears to be closing, causing many to revisit the 2020 election dynamics and wonder about the implications for future races.

Polling Insights

A fresh survey conducted by the Siena Research Institute provides clarity. It indicates that currently, in New York, Trump trails Biden by only 9 percentage points.

U.S. President Joe Biden sits at a desk in the Oval Office with the American flag and the presidential seal flag behind him

This is a significant decrease from the previous month, where the margin was a pronounced 21 percentage points.


A Closer Look at Numbers

Historical data shows that in the 2020 election, Biden secured a substantial lead over Trump, with a margin of 61 to 28 percent. 

President Joe Biden walking in a grand hallway in The White House, with an American flag to his left, the Presidential seal on a flag next to him

Source: Getty Images

However, this advantage seems to be diminishing, as recent data places Biden at 46 percent, with Trump closely following at 37 percent.

Party Loyalties Questioned

Results from the same Siena College poll have revealed some introspection within the Democratic party. 

President Joe Biden standing at a podium with a blue "BIDEN PRESIDENT" sign, against a backdrop of American flags

A noteworthy 52 percent of Democrats have voiced their inclination towards supporting a different presidential nominee as opposed to Biden.

Considerations in a Four-Way Race

When the political equation was expanded to include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, results shifted further. 

Robert. F. Kennedy Jr, holding a microphone, speaking against a backdrop with red and blue hues

Source: Getty Images

Biden’s advantage over Trump reduced to a mere 7 percent. In this scenario, Biden stood at 38 percent and Trump at 31 percent, illustrating the impact of multiple candidates.

Kennedy and West's Political Positions

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., initially affiliated as a Democrat, chose to transition his allegiance to Independent. 

Cornel West pointing outward while speaking into a microphone at a lectern with banners in the background

Source: Getty Images

On a similar note, Cornel West departed from the Green Party, emphasizing his objective to challenge the prevailing political systems, adding a new dimension to the race.


Republican Victories in New York

Historically, the last time a Republican presidential candidate emerged victorious in New York was in 1984 with Ronald Reagan. 

Ronald Raegan looking upwards, set against the backdrop of an American flag

Source: Getty Images

This long-standing record was highlighted by Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg, emphasizing the significance of the current shifting dynamics.


Assessing Biden's Standing in New York

Despite leading in the polls, Biden faces challenges in New York. His favorability and job approval ratings have plummeted, reaching their lowest in recent times. 

Joe Biden speaking at a podium, with a blue backdrop displaying the word 'BIDENOMICS'

Biden Discussing Economic Policies

This information, sourced from Siena College, underlines the changing political sentiments among New York voters.


State and National Outlook from New Yorkers

Insights from the poll unveil that 52 percent of participants believe New York is moving in an unfavorable direction. 

Aerial view of New York City skyline at sunset with the iconic Empire State Building in the foreground and the Manhattan skyline stretching out in the distance

Source: Bing HAO/Unsplash

Additionally, an even larger group, 65 percent, expresses concern about the overall direction of the nation, reflecting widespread apprehension.


Migration Concerns

Migration remains a focal point in New York’s political discourse. A substantial 57 percent of polled participants classify it as a significant issue. 

Busy street scene on Vanderbilt Ave in New York City with migrants gathered behind barriers, camping out as they try to secure temporary housing

Source: Getty Images

Moreover, a decisive 64 percent advocate for strategic measures to regulate and manage the ongoing migration influx into the state.


Wide Agreement on Migration

Migration has proven to be an issue of collective concern. 

In an aerial view, immigrants seeking asylum in the United States wait in line near the border fence to be processed by U.S. Border Patrol

Source: Getty Images

Around 79 percent of participants, cutting across party lines and demographic categories, concur that the state is experiencing a significant challenge due to the influx of migrants, showcasing a rare consensus.


Public Perception of Trump in New York

The shifting political dynamics in New York bring Trump into focus. 

Donald Trump in a blue suit and tie speaking with a hand gesture, with blurred figures and informational signs in the background

Source: Getty Images

However, despite these shifts, a majority, amounting to 59 percent of the state’s populace, still holds a critical view of Trump, as outlined by the recent poll data.